Big game coming up this weekend! I guess that goes pretty much without saying, though. What I don't get is why the Steelers-Jets game got the primetime slot, and the Packers-Bears didn't. Everyone and their mothers knows the latter will get better ratings anyway.
Fun fact: In their 91-year history, the Packers and Bears have both made the playoffs in only four seasons. This will be the second meeting between the teams in the playoffs (Bears won in 1941 in the Divisional round, 33-14, en route the the NFL championship). This monumental game has been 69 years in the making. People can say what they want to say about both meetings between the two clubs (split, 1-1), but the truth of the matter is, you can't really gather much about either game.
The first meeting (Bears 20-17) was in Week 3. That's only three weeks into the season. Teams are still forming and gelling at that point. Nothing's concrete. The Bears' offense is completely different now. The Packers are more disciplined. That's just a couple things. I won't go in depth about this game, because nothing in the NFL really starts solidifying until Weeks 6-9 or so.
The second meeting (Packers 10-3) was in Week 17. The Bears had solidified a first-round playoff bye and the #2 seed. They couldn't move up or down, no matter what happened that Sunday, in that game, or around the league. The Bears' offensive gameplan was similar to the first half of the season, where they passed heavily. They've developed a more balanced attack the second half of the season. But in that Week 17 game, the Bears showed an attack very much similar to what they had early in the season. They didn't want to give away anything or give anyone anything worth studying. Granted, they wanted to win that game for pride's sake (hence keeping the starters in all game; lucky Cutler wasn't injured with the beating he took), but the Bears weren't about to go revealing too much for their eventual playoff opponents.
The Packers, on the other hand, almost had to throw everything they had at the Bears in Week 17. It was essentially their first playoff game. Win or go home. That simple. Dom Capers and the defense pretty much released their whole arsenal upon the Bears' offense, whereas the Packers' offense pretty much kept up what they had been doing in previous weeks. Rodgers led the team with rush attempts (7) and yards (21) in that game. No bueno. Gotta give the rock to James Starks more often. Man, I like him... a lot. But I'll get to him in a sec.
So while the Packers barely squeaked out a win and playoff berth against the Bears in Week 17, they did it in sloppy fashion with a sputtering offense. That offense has been clicking again in the postseason, and it's something to be reckoned with. Here's where I get to James Starks:
I like this guy... a lot. In the three games (including playoffs) this season where he's gotten double-digit carries, he's posted 262 yards on 66 attempts, good for 3.97 yards per carry. While that's only above average, at best, take into consideration his yards after contact. While I don't know an exact figure, it has to be pretty good. The guy's always falling forward when he eventually is brought down. His legs are always driving. He'll get hit two yards deep in the backfield and drive/fall forward for a one-yard gain. 2nd and 9 is always better than 2nd and 12. He makes crisp cuts when he changes direction. He seems to read the defense well, and he hits the hole with authority and sans hesitation. I think he'll break 60 yards on Sunday, for sure. He's averaging 89.5 yards per game in two games this postseason, but the Bears' front seven is a daunting task, so I think 60 yards is a success against that group. I think he'll get at least 15 carries, helping set up the pass, which is really where the Packers want to attack the Bears. Not only because we want the game on Aaron Rodgers' shoulders, but because if there's any place the Bears' defense is vulnerable, it's the secondary. Safety Chris Harris's hip flexor (hasn't practiced through Thursday) should be a factor as well.
I'm seeing a pretty balanced passing attack from Rodgers on Sunday, as far as distribution goes. With Starks' 15+ carries, I see Kuhn and Jackson combining for 5-10 carries. I think 25-30 carries or so from the RBs should really keep the defense honest and let Rodgers open things up through the air. While I don't see him completing 31 of 36 like he did against the Falcons, I think 20 completions is more than reachable. Match that with 240+ yards through the air and 2 TDs, and you've got yourself a pretty productive day against a good defense.
While I'd love to see James Starks get his first career touchdown this weekend, I don't really see it happening, unless he breaks off a long run of 15+ yards. I see a 1- or 2-yard punch-in from Kuuuuhhhnnn, though, maybe with B.J. "The Freezer" Raji leading the way again.
I think the outcome of this game lies mostly on the Bears' offensive line. While it's been pretty solid the latter half of the season, it didn't look good in Week 17. I know the Bears didn't run their usual offense in that game, but it's no excuse to let up six sacks. I think if the line can be fairly dominant, the Bears have a great chance of pulling out the victory. If not, I see Cutler getting sacked and rushed and having to force throws, leading to picks, which we all know he's fond of doing. Even with an average effort from the line, I can see Forte surpassing 60 yards rushing, and tack on at least 25 yards receiving, and a touchdown.
I think, with Dom Capers' excellent scheming, the Packers will keep that line guessing and on their heels, leading to at least 4 sacks and 2 interceptions from Cutler. I think he'll toss a TD to Knox, though. He was kept quiet in Week 17, but I don't see a repeat this Sunday. I think he'll be good for at least four catches and 50 yards and that touchdown. Cutler should be good for 220+ passing yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Another game-changing factor here is Devin Hester. While the Packers' biggest flaw is defending punt and kick returns, I think Hester will be kept somewhat in check. I don't see more than 140 total return yards on 4-6 total returns.
We all know turnovers are crucial, and I see the Packers winning the turnover battle. I think the Bears' offensive line will become suspect to the numerous packages and looks the Packers' defense will throw at them. I think that will lead to a long and painful day for Jay Cutler. I also think that the Bears' secondary will be susceptible to the deep and talented receiving corps of the Pack. The only way I see the Bears pulling out a win is if the defense can turn the Packers' offense into a one-dimensional attack, with the help of a great performance out of Hester in the return game. The Packers will succeed with the passing game and good defense, earning themselves a berth in Super Bowl XLV versus the Steelers. I don't know how the Jets have gotten this far, but they're not going any further.
Packers 27, Bears 17
P.S. -
GO PACK GO!!!
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